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Product details
File Size: 1104 KB
Print Length: 248 pages
Publisher: Yale University Press; 1 edition (September 11, 2018)
Publication Date: September 1, 2018
Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC
Language: English
ASIN: B07H3TS63Y
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This is an extraordinary inquire into Xi Jinping’s desires for China and its role in the world in coming years. Magnus is closely connected to Oxford University’s China Centre, but has also been a consultant in the Banking world, an adviser to some asset management companies, and a knowledgeable reference for British media. This could be the most complete and provocative publication on China available today because of issues it raises without tripping off into doctrinaire proclivities.He looks at the battle between democratic liberalism and authoritarianism, the imagery of western society as open, democratic, and progressive and Xi Jinping’s authoritarian shutting down of China’s liberalizing reforms in recent years described as well by other China specialists, and sees the latter as an appealing model to more and more counties as authoritarianism rises world wide.*He plays this theme out against the prevailing distrust of China’s neighbors in a historical context and the appealing offers of investment and construction under Xi’s One Belt One Road recovery of the ancient Silk Road all intertwined in one of the most complete descriptions of China’s strengths and failings you are likely to find anywhere today; not predictions but a hard analysis of driving forces facing China’s unique political and economic system.That is a basket full -- but the bulk of the book is aimed at the lingering and often repeated theme that China is on the brink of Collapse. He takes the three major themes offered by critics: The rising Debt, percentages that have caused other economies to fail (The Debt Trap – Ch. 4), The Old Before Rich occurrence (Demographic (Aging) Trap – Ch.6), and the well supported stalling of development elsewhere (Middle-Income Trap – Ch. 7), then adds a topic only a Banking specialist might notice (The Renminbi Trap – Ch. 5).You will know the arguments but also the necessary conditions of any one of these ‘Traps’ or combinations of them to derail China’s development. That is a rich, but never doctrinaire and knowing there are some serious unknowns lying ahead (it is a technical subject).** As the title indicates Xi Jinping has some hard years ahead if not derailed along the way by lingering opposition groups or current events.This is a very worthwhile read. George Magnus takes these heavy topics and turns them into ‘a page turner,’ an expression reviewer’s love, but here true. He happens to know his subject and wants to share it with his readers. Insightful, time may prove him correct in his warnings he was an early alert on the 2007-7 Financial Crisis.5stars* Carl Minzner, End of an Era: How China’s Authoritarian Revival is Undermining Its Rise and William H. Overholt, China’s Crisis of Success both share Magus’ theme that China has difficult time ahead but for somewhat different reasons. There are additive if interested and all well written.** A suggestion click on the first footnote and scan the offerings for the chapter as an introduction to what is to come, some you will want to open and look at the originals.
China's growth potential and trajectory remains one of the most important determinants of global growth at the moment and for the foreseeable future. Furthermore as it has interlinked with the world to an unprecedented degree, its influence on global economic activity is now often central to how assets prices are being determined and the future is being projected. In a time in which there are increased frictions in the arena of global trade, having visibility on China's growth trajectory in a variety of circumstances is extremely valuable. This book does not give that, but it foes give perspective on the challenges China faces at this stage in its economic development. George Magnus has been an advisor to investment banks and an academic for decades focusing on China so his opinions and analysis are well informed. The author tries to inform the reader as to the history as well as future challenges China will face and gives substance to all of his claims.The author gives an effective economic history of China in Red Flag. He is certainly concerned with the growing autocratic nature of China with the consolidation of power with Xi and reminds the reader of one man rule with Mao. He gives the history of China opening up and the reforms the Party undertook 30 years ago that culminated in joining the WTO. The author highlights that the current issues that the US has unilaterally decided to dispute with China is not unfounded but is poorly thought out in strategy. He believes solutions should be multi-lateral and trading arrangements like the TPP should have been followed to better nudge behavior. The author analyses several issues he sees as potential traps for China. He discusses the debt trap which is largely the unsustainable credit intensity and the challenges of deleveraging. The author works through arithmetically why deleveraging is so challenging and how slower growth is a almost certain condition for rebalancing. The author also discusses the Renminbi trap and the impossibility of having control over the currency, have an open capital account and an independent monetary authority. For China it is the capital account which is the risk. The author describes how being added to the SDR basket is a superficial move and in the absence of an open capital account, the CNY will never be a large portion of settled trading volume. The author moves onto the demographic challenges which were catalyzed with the one-child policy. China's dependency ratio will increase rapidly in the coming decades due to the craziness of the one-child policy which also skewed the gender balance. This will further strain state finances as their obligations will balloon. The author discusses the middle income trap, though this concept is more amorphous and describes how China needs more vibrant consumer driven economy with less state intervention to deliver the appropriate goods and services to a society getting richer. This is definitely a questionable conclusion as many would argue China's entrepreneurial class are world leading. The author gets into the real time issues China is facing with trade. These are deep issues as China is not opening itself up in many critical areas to trade for its domestic markets. Furthermore its economic model does not really allow for reciprocity. These issues will plague relations for the visible future. As mentioned above, the US's approach is frowned upon by the author as giving China the upper hand as it has no strategic depth and is purely self interested and tactical. The author then gives an overview of the economic system and the difficulties in assuming the future will be like the past. There has been a growing view that the economic models of the West are failing and a growing arrogance that the China model is resilient in the post financial crisis world. There is empirical evidence to support those views but they are merely recent history. The author argues that the real challenges for China lie in the future as it grows more internally conflicted between being friendly to markets while putting the Party as the center of all priorities. This conflict is what the author believes one must focus on. He discusses Xi Xinping's China and highlights the rhetoric of the benefits of globalization from Xi need to be seen through the lens of China rationalizing its self interest to a certain extent.Red Flags does a good job of giving an overview of the challenges China will face in the coming decades. There are books which can look at the same data and come to different conclusions so it is important to not believe that this analysis is destiny but it is important to recognize there are many fragilities that China must wearily face sooner rather than later. The book also gives a very up to date overview of China's competitive advantages in new technologies as well as geopolitical fissures. This is a good book to read for all those interested in China's political economy in a multi-polar world.
The economic model China has pursued since it's early days of reform and opening up is tired. George Magnus takes us on a well-informed tour of how we've got to where we are today and, of more use, explains why much of what has worked in the past won't work in the future. He wisely avoids bold prediction about the next move and seems to suggest that simply trying to tinker with existing institutions won't do. Whether or not China goes forward, sideways or back this book reminds just how high the stakes are now, for China Inc. and the rest of the world.
Excellent book. It helps Americans and others 'get' the problem with a dictator regime.
I read 50% before the author revealed his anti-Trump bias. I would not have read nor will I read anymore.
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